Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Factors in Voting

According to the chapter called “What Determines the Vote?” (Controversies in Voting Behavior), there are three basic orientations that determines who a person votes for. These are decisions by party, by issues, or by the candidate factor. Realignment and dealignment theories attempt to explain the decrease in party voting. Issue voting is considered to be the most rational and appropriate, but especially in primaries the public is often ignorant of issue differences between the candidates. Candidate voting is “seen as less appropriate than issue voting” (Niemi, p.143), however, it has had considerable effect in past presidential elections and can be observed in the current presidential election.
According to the authors, the elections of the 70’s and 80’s involved candidate factors in voting outcome. This can work in a positive or negative direction. For example, Carter’s victory in 1976 was based on the public’s belief in his integrity and honesty after the Watergate scandal. The candidate factor worked against him when the public began to question his competence in foreign affairs, and he lost re-election. In many situations the candidate factor, especially in terms of qualities the public wants in their image of a president, can take dominance over differences on issues. This was especially obvious in the election and re-election of Ronald Reagan.
In the current Democratic primary, the public seems less focused on issue differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and more focused on character differences. Although Democratic strategists try to educate the public on the differences between the candidates, more attention in the news is focused on their character and personal style. Clinton is critiqued for being too staged and too entangled into the established political system. Her supporters focus on her experience as the strength of her character appeal. Obama is seen as the candidate of change, specifically against the current political system. His character is described as a motivational speaker and an appealing presence. Critics of Obama focus on how his character appeal should not be basis for becoming president.
There may be many reasons why American elections are increasingly becoming candidate focused. It is more than just party dealignment and public ignorance on issues, it seems to have more to do with campaign advertising strategies that focus on qualities and attributes that are appealing to the public. These character qualities bring a sense of psychological connection or comfort, especially in terms of confidence. In this primary battle between Clinton and Obama, the focus has mainly been on the quality of experience verses integrity. In public opinion that favor Clinton’s experience, the voters seem less concerned with her integrity and other character traits. Obama’s supporters admire that he is honest and trust that he will follow through on changes that would benefit people.

1 comment:

mike said...

It will be interesting to see how the "ignorant" public will respond when the general election rolls around. If such theories regarding recent political events hold true then it should spell trouble for the republican party. However, this could play an adverse role due to the potential candidates running for nomination in the Democratic party. Not once has a president lost re-election during war time and that is not to say that a party has never lost re-election, but it will be interesting to see how the American people deal with the prospect of war with the either of the two potential Democratic candidates. I say this because whether it is true or not, many people will be under the impression that a woman should not be our leader under war time circumstance. Likewise many will look at, and surely the republicans will emphasize, the fact that Obama has a Muslim background during war time in a region dominated by that religion.
Internally, I agree with you that the media is focused on the personalities of the two Democratic candidates, however I wouldn't go as far as to say it's because of America's ignorance on the issues. I think it has in large part to do with the fact that Clinton and Obama aren't really that far apart on many of the main party issues, with the exception of healthcare and even that isn’t as far apart as the debates would lead you to believe.