My prediction for the remainder of the 2008 presidential campaign is that the race will be between John McCain (R) and Barack Obama (D). McCain has already received the required number of pledge delegates (The candidate must receive 1,119 out of the 2,380 delegates), so he has been able to begin campaigning for the presidency. The neck- and-neck Democratic competition between Clinton and Obama has reached a point in which Obama’s pledge delegates have an adequate lead over Clinton’s. The Democratic nominee needs 2,025 pledged delegates. In 1984, about 850 super-delegates (considered a “safety valve”) were added. These are leaders in the National Democratic Party and who have a vote at the National Convention. Most people agree that the super-delegates should honor the candidate that their district voted for.
Although Clinton is holding on at this point, analysis of the numbers indicate that she will not get the nomination. There are opinions on both sides of this issue, whether she should withdraw or continue through the remaining six primaries. My personal opinion is that her continued attacks on Obama will hurt him as the nominee in the general election. Some Clinton supporters, such as Lanny Davi, believe she is justified to remain in the race, since it so close and she has a large base of support. Other critics question her motives on why she would risk a Democratic win for personal gain. At this point, most Democrats see the need for the party to come together strongly and create a united campaign against McCain and the Republicans. They need to focus the campaign on the Democratic Party benefits over the Republican platform, instead of highlighting the division in the Democratic Party.
If the race comes down to Obama vs. McCain, I predict it will be close. McCain will have the support of the conservatives and most of the moderates. Obama’s reputation, that of being more liberal than Clinton, will gain him the support of the left, possibly some swing voters and the youth and minority vote. Some of Clinton supporters may switch their alliance to Obama but other more moderate Democrats may likely vote for McCain. John Edward’s supporters would go to Obama, although this is not a large block at this point. The greatest hope for an Obama win would be a large turnout among young voters and minority voters. Unfortunately, with the religious controversy surrounding Obama he will certainly lose the religious vote, which may have been unavoidable anyway.
Studying campaigns and elections from the past and present has given me great insight into campaign tactics and how candidates match the needs of the times. This class has also highlighted how the general public makes voting decisions. It is surprising to learn how little information the general public has on important political issues and positions of the candidates. An example of this was just recently shown on the Jon Stewart show (May 14, 2008), in which voters from West Virginia were interviewed. In the three examples, one woman commented that she could not vote for Obama because she had concerns about dealing with “the other race.” A second woman said she could not vote for a Muslim. The third was tired of “Husseins” and would not vote for “a Hussein.” Obviously, none of these things make sense, but some voters make opinions based on very little information, and then they bring these misconceptions to the polls. As a political science major, I think this course is critical to understand how campaigns and elections work (and often don’t work) in the United States.
David Kennedy
http://www.gopconventionreport.com/
www.uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections
Although Clinton is holding on at this point, analysis of the numbers indicate that she will not get the nomination. There are opinions on both sides of this issue, whether she should withdraw or continue through the remaining six primaries. My personal opinion is that her continued attacks on Obama will hurt him as the nominee in the general election. Some Clinton supporters, such as Lanny Davi, believe she is justified to remain in the race, since it so close and she has a large base of support. Other critics question her motives on why she would risk a Democratic win for personal gain. At this point, most Democrats see the need for the party to come together strongly and create a united campaign against McCain and the Republicans. They need to focus the campaign on the Democratic Party benefits over the Republican platform, instead of highlighting the division in the Democratic Party.
If the race comes down to Obama vs. McCain, I predict it will be close. McCain will have the support of the conservatives and most of the moderates. Obama’s reputation, that of being more liberal than Clinton, will gain him the support of the left, possibly some swing voters and the youth and minority vote. Some of Clinton supporters may switch their alliance to Obama but other more moderate Democrats may likely vote for McCain. John Edward’s supporters would go to Obama, although this is not a large block at this point. The greatest hope for an Obama win would be a large turnout among young voters and minority voters. Unfortunately, with the religious controversy surrounding Obama he will certainly lose the religious vote, which may have been unavoidable anyway.
Studying campaigns and elections from the past and present has given me great insight into campaign tactics and how candidates match the needs of the times. This class has also highlighted how the general public makes voting decisions. It is surprising to learn how little information the general public has on important political issues and positions of the candidates. An example of this was just recently shown on the Jon Stewart show (May 14, 2008), in which voters from West Virginia were interviewed. In the three examples, one woman commented that she could not vote for Obama because she had concerns about dealing with “the other race.” A second woman said she could not vote for a Muslim. The third was tired of “Husseins” and would not vote for “a Hussein.” Obviously, none of these things make sense, but some voters make opinions based on very little information, and then they bring these misconceptions to the polls. As a political science major, I think this course is critical to understand how campaigns and elections work (and often don’t work) in the United States.
David Kennedy
http://www.gopconventionreport.com/
www.uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections
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