Friday, May 16, 2008
1952 Primary v. 2008 Primary
The 2008 election is the first election since 1952 that neither the sitting President nor sitting Vice President is in the general election for the Presidency.
Looking back to the 1952 election, Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower against Democrat Adlai Stevenson, it was a landslide victory with the Republican Party carrying 39 states and 442 of the electoral votes. This might lead to the question of how 1952 relates back to today’s election that seems like it will be a close one.
The answer is in the Republican nomination compared to the nomination process of the Democrat’s this primary season. Just like 2008, with the primaries being a battle the whole way for the Democrats, with the possibility of it carrying all of the way to the convention, the Republicans in 1952 battled it out all of the way to the convention in Chicago.
The true battle was between Robert A. Taft and Eisenhower. This was Taft’s 3rd election run and he knew full well that this was his last shot and so his supporters knew also that they would have to fight tooth and nail for their last chance at the presidency. Of course, with any such battle in politics there were accusations of cheating across the board. Eisenhower’s camp was accusing Taft of stealing votes from Texas and Georgia by refusing to send delegates who supported Eisenhower to the convention and sending Taft supporters in their place. After this, the Eisenhower camp proposed and got passed the “Fair-play” mandate that stated the pro Taft delegates from Texas and Georgia must be thrown out of the convention and replaced with pro Eisenhower delegates. This took so many delegates away from Taft that he no longer stood a chance.
To give and example of just how bad the blow was Taft’s Presidential dreams here are the numbers of delegates from before and the Fair-play proposition and after. Before Fair-play, the vote was Eisenhower 595 to Taft’s 500. After the proposition, the vote became Eisenhower, 845 delegates, Taft, 280.
Hopefully the Democratic primary will not end with the same kind of controversy, as did the Republican convention of 1952. For right now, we will just have to wait and see. However, it seems very likely that this drawn out battle will have an impact on the Democrat’s battle against McCain in the general election, unlike the election of 1952, where the Republicans swept the election anyway.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Last Blog post: McCain vs Obama
Although Clinton is holding on at this point, analysis of the numbers indicate that she will not get the nomination. There are opinions on both sides of this issue, whether she should withdraw or continue through the remaining six primaries. My personal opinion is that her continued attacks on Obama will hurt him as the nominee in the general election. Some Clinton supporters, such as Lanny Davi, believe she is justified to remain in the race, since it so close and she has a large base of support. Other critics question her motives on why she would risk a Democratic win for personal gain. At this point, most Democrats see the need for the party to come together strongly and create a united campaign against McCain and the Republicans. They need to focus the campaign on the Democratic Party benefits over the Republican platform, instead of highlighting the division in the Democratic Party.
If the race comes down to Obama vs. McCain, I predict it will be close. McCain will have the support of the conservatives and most of the moderates. Obama’s reputation, that of being more liberal than Clinton, will gain him the support of the left, possibly some swing voters and the youth and minority vote. Some of Clinton supporters may switch their alliance to Obama but other more moderate Democrats may likely vote for McCain. John Edward’s supporters would go to Obama, although this is not a large block at this point. The greatest hope for an Obama win would be a large turnout among young voters and minority voters. Unfortunately, with the religious controversy surrounding Obama he will certainly lose the religious vote, which may have been unavoidable anyway.
Studying campaigns and elections from the past and present has given me great insight into campaign tactics and how candidates match the needs of the times. This class has also highlighted how the general public makes voting decisions. It is surprising to learn how little information the general public has on important political issues and positions of the candidates. An example of this was just recently shown on the Jon Stewart show (May 14, 2008), in which voters from West Virginia were interviewed. In the three examples, one woman commented that she could not vote for Obama because she had concerns about dealing with “the other race.” A second woman said she could not vote for a Muslim. The third was tired of “Husseins” and would not vote for “a Hussein.” Obviously, none of these things make sense, but some voters make opinions based on very little information, and then they bring these misconceptions to the polls. As a political science major, I think this course is critical to understand how campaigns and elections work (and often don’t work) in the United States.
David Kennedy
http://www.gopconventionreport.com/
www.uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections
Elections with Recessions
1968 and 2008
Another similarity between ’68 and ’08 is Nixon and McCain. Nixon made a comeback after being defeated in 1960 by John F. Kennedy and once again in 1964 by Barry Goldwater. In order to gain attention, Nixon tried hard to regain political attention by making speeches, and reaching out to other Republican party officials for friendships (321). McCain ran for nomination in 2000 against Bush and subsequently lost. However since then he has gained momentum, like Nixon, and has shed his “loser’s image” (321).
Another issue that is similar is the ‘tough on crime’ approach that the Conservatives take. Giuliani made many get tough on crime stances during his short-lived campaign and McCain himself takes a tough on terror/crime stance as well. Nixon made use of the law and order issue, he promised to make streets safer and “restore order and respect for law in this country” (324).
In conclusion, the Vietnam and Iraq wars separated the country between doves and hawks and are important backgrounds to the elections.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Let No-One Complain of Good Competition
Although this years election so far has been tough, hard fought and down to the nail for the Democrats, let no one utter a word of complaint, but release a breath of relief that Barry Goldwater is not in the election. The election of 1964, Lyndon Johnson against Barry Goldwater, should remind all Americans that a close race between quality candidates is better than a race that includes an extremist who makes a candidacy ending statement each time he opens his mouth. Yes, Hillary had a glitch with the bullets whizzing over head because she was tired, and Obama offended Pennsylvanians in reference to religion and guns, but nothing compares to Barry Goldwater. No other election has seen the use of 'quotemanship' like '64. Goldwater, famous for shooting from the lip, visited areas suffering from depression and attacked legislation which would benefit low employment, he visited St. Petersburg, known for it's aging population, and attacked social security,upon visiting farming towns he attacked farming support, and on Foreign Policy, said he wanted to remove the United States from the United Nations, use "low yield" nuclear weapons against the communists and "lob" one into the Mens room of the Russian Governmental Building. It was no surprise that Johnson took the election in an absolute landslide. So as these Democratic elections draw on, remember that it is only the quality of the candidates that allow it to do so and hopefully it is this close competition that will result in the strongest and most worthy President, not simply one who had less than adequate opposition.
1972 and 2008
Justin O'Connor
Monday, May 12, 2008
'92 vs. '08
Americans rank the economy as a more important issue than the “war” in Iraq by a significant margin (30% as stated in one of my previous posts). This is what caused a shift in support in 1992 from Republican to Democrats and may be the cause of the same type of shift in support today. It may be that with problems here at home people forget more about the war as a social issue and focus more on the failing markets here at home. With less focus on the war people feel less threatened, and the more threatened people feel the more conservative people will vote. Being distracted from those “threats” by the economy’s shortcomings could cause people to vote less conservative.
With this in mind it seems as if this year’s main issue during the general election will be the economy. As Bill Clinton said in 1992 “it’s the economy stupid...” could be used as a campaign slogan this year in 2008. It seems as if this year Americans are more concerned with the burst of the housing market bubble and the downfall of our financial markets than they are with the war dragging on in Iraq. Also, the signs of the economy are directly affecting more Americans than the social issues are affecting them. People continue to see the gas prices rise and the markets struggle and the candidates talk about the issue more and more. Like 1992, in 2008, if the war is out of sight, it’s out of mind.
Some other similarities between the elections include the large number of Democratic candidates that ran for the nomination. However, the process for this year’s nomination was much more drawn out than it was in 1992. It will be interesting to see how the general election will play out especially with the economy being such a big issue this year. Also, it will be interesting to see how the war will come into play later on as well.
Sunday, May 11, 2008
1976 and 2008
In an earlier post, I wrote about the tit-for-tat primary season for the Republican party in the 1976 presidential race and how it is similar to the Democratic nomination process this time around. Also, in another post, I wrote about the effect religion had in the 1976 race and the 2008 race. To refresh everyone's memories, the tit-for-tat primary race in 1976 meant that Reagan and Ford would both win primaries, and that neither could gain momentum in the nomination process. When Ford would get a big win, Reagan would come right back and get a big win of his own. This is somewhat similar to the 2008 race, with neither candidate, Obama or Clinton, able to get a long standing momentum lasting more than a month or so. While Obama got some momentum by winning 12 straight contests in a row after Super-Tuesday, he could not carry that momentum into Texas and Ohio, as Clinton won big there. As for the religion aspect, I earlier wrote that the whole hoop-la surrounding Jeremiah Wright and how it negatively affected Obama is similar to the 1976 race in that Jimmy Carter had some issues with religion. For instance, he talked about faith in an article published in Playboy Magazine. Carter said that it was a sin to even think of coveting another woman other than his wife, and that by that logic, he has sinned. Another aspect of religion that played a role in 1976 was that it was found out that Carter's Baptist church in Georgia had denied entry of a black person into it. They said they had no problem allowing a black person in there, but that was because there were no black people that went to that church and they figured entry would not be an issue. But when a black person tried to enter, they locked the doors. Carter defended his church and said he would not stop going there. As a result, Carter's 33% advantage over Ford dwindled and had a real race on his hands when the general election came closer.
One other similarity I noticed between these two elections is the South. Carter was the last Democrat that was able to win Southern states as a result of being a governor from Georgia. Obama, in the primaries, has won the South convincingly, (excluding Florida), and some predict that Obama could bring some Southern states, like Georgia, Louisiana, Virginia, North Carolina, and maybe even South Carolina and Mississippi into play as a result of all those states heavy African American populations. If this is the case, then the media would be saying that this is the first time a Democrat has won Southern states like this since Carter in 1976.
While I think that this election is most similar to 1976, I feel that one cannot use the 1976 election as a catalyst for the outcome of this race. There are may different issues today that were not big issues 32 years ago. The outcome of the race this year will be determined on how well each party can get their voters out. Assuming that Obama wins the nomination, as it so likely seems now, and Obama versus McCain race will be an exciting one and possible a realigning race. The one thing that 1976 tells us about today's race, is that many things will be thrown at each candidate from the other side, yet both seemed in 1976 to whether it till the general election when the winner was not really known. All I know is that when I cast my ballot in November and am nervously watching election results come in on the networks to see how my guy is doing, I will expect to hear some of the better commentators mention 1976 a few times, whether it be for the fact that Obama may have won some Southern states that have not been won by a Democrat since 1976, or for the fact that a personal religious issue and a tit-for-tat primary season negatively affected one of the candidates.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Sticking by my guns with the Election of 1912
It's not over until the fat lady sings seems to be the motto for Hillary Clinton as she continues to stay in a race that is all but won by Barack Obama. Still with the hope that she can some how pull out a win Clinton continues to look more and more like William Taft.
In 1912, the first year with a large amount of political primaries, former president Teddy Roosevelt won a majority of the primaries and seemed like the for sure. However, when it came down to the convention the party decided on William Taft as the nominee. Teddy is so upset he leaves the party and creates the Bull Moose Party to run in the election. Splitting the party vote, Woodrow Wilson is able to skate through the national election to winning the president.
Seeing as the 2008 primary season is yet to conclude, it would be premature to say which historic national election best mirrors the 2008 election. With this in mind, the current situation best mirrors that of 1912, which I discribed above. Obama has won 29 of the primaries to date, compared to Clintons 18, and he has won 1,846 delegates to her 1,685. It is hard to say that Clinton has much of a case for the nomination, but still she hangs in the race. Her only real chance is if the superdelegates vote against the general electorate. The real question is, what if the superdelegates do the unthinkable and elect Hillary Clinton? It's hard to believe that Obama would branch off and form his own political party, but it could be enough for a large portion of the democratic to stay home on election day and thus give the election to John McCain. The Democratic party leaders can only hope that the damage has not been done already
Andrew Stoltzfus
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Race and Religion 2
I just made a post a few hours ago regarding the election of 1928. In many 1928 campaign mirrors that of the 1960 campaign. However, I believe the election of 1960 is most comparable to the election of 2008, which is why I saved it for this last post. For the purpose of this post I will assume Barack Obama will be the Democratic candidate, quite frankly, because it makes for a more relevant comparison.
(* = or Clinton)
-In this election one of the major issues was whether to vote for Irish Catholic John Kennedy or Protestant Richard Nixon.
-In the election of 2008 It would be black candidate Barack Obama* who also has relatives of Muslim descent versus….well we don’t really know what the hell McCain’s religious views are.
-Kennedy had to avoid isolating the Protestant voters. To do this he took a platform stressing the importance separation of ‘church’ and state.
On September 12, 1960, he went to speak to members of the Protestant Church in Texas. During the speech Kennedy said, “I am not the Catholic candidate for President, I am the Democratic Party’s candidate for president who happens also to be a Catholic. I do not speak for my church on public matters, and the church does not speak for me.” (Boller, Jr. 298)
Despite this, the campaign featured religious propaganda.
-Obama has had to stress, “that he has “been to the same church _ the same Christian church _ for almost 20 years," Obama said, stressing the word Christian and drawing cheers from the faithful in reply. "I was sworn in with my hand on the family Bible. Whenever I'm in the United States Senate, I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America. So if you get some silly e-mail ... send it back to whoever sent it and tell them this is all crazy. Educate." According to a Jan. 21st article on MSNBC.com http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22767392/ .
Despite his words, there is still propaganda circulating on the web pertaining to his race and religion.
Nixon made charges against Kennedy that included exploiting the fact that Kennedy was young and “inexperienced (300).” Kennedy was 46 when he died in office.
Clinton has made the same charges in regards to Barack Obama who turns 48 in August.
Kennedy charged that the country had been in decline under the rule of the Republicans. He emphasized America’s decline in the eyes of the world, America’s lack of production, and America’s failures in the arms race vs. Russia. (298)
Both Democratic candidates have made an issue out of the sinking economy under the Bush Administration, the failures overseas, and our inability to maintain a good foreign image.
John Kennedy was the first Irish Catholic president, if Obama happens to win he would be America’s first black President. Both men dealt with issue of culture and religion, and both were considered to be charismatic, energetic, and well spoken young men. Both ran against a Republic party that had controlled office with a two term incumbent (Eisenhower and Bush). Both ran against older candidates and were thought to be liberal and forward thinking. The lines of comparison are seemingly more generic on the Republican side, both were white, Christian of some sort, and older men.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-01-16-clinton-bush_x.htm
http://www.biography.com/search/article.do?id=12782369
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22767392/
Presidential Campaigns and Elections. Boller Paul.
1980 and 2008...Mirror Elections?
1980 serves as a fresh political stage for America. Both Kennedy and Nixon were not running again and the stage was set for new candidates to emerge. The Republicans put Ronald Reagan and the Democrats nominated Jimmy Carter. Both parties went through a very long nomination process that is very similar to that of the current 2008 election, on the Democratic side. le. In 1980, 6 candidates were contenders for the Presidential nomination on the Democratic side; John Connally, Bob Dole, Howard Baker, John Anderson, George Bush and Ronald Reagan and 2 candidates were up on the Republican side; Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy. Most of the candidates dropped out as the primary season went along, leaving only 3; Reagan, Bush and Anderson. Anderson did not drop out of the race, but rather decided to put himself on an independent third party ticket (but did not win, because third party systems do not win in American.) Regan was very convinced he was going to win the nomination so he chose to claim momentum and not campaign, but got competition when Bush beat im in Ohio. The two candidates battles it out until New Hampshire, where he proved to have more delegates going into the Republican convention. In the end, Reagan received the nomination and asked Bush to be his running mate. On the Democratic side, they nominated Jimmy Carter for the Presidential candidate, but not after a long fight. Jimmy Carter received intense opposition from Ted Kennedy, who proved to be a feisty opponent to the end. Ted Kennedy put up a strong opposition in the primary fight, but Carterended up running away with the nomination for three reasons; Kennedy’s mudslide interview, Nashua and the Iranian hostage crisis and Revolution (rally around the flag effect). Kennedy did not endorse Carter’s nomination so there was obviously a bitter sentiment to the end.
This situation is very similar to the situation going on in the election right now, on the Democratic side. John McCain easily won the Republican nomination and has already started his Presidential campaing instead of continuing on the primary course. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama are continuing to battle it out late into the eprimary season, just like all the candidates in the 1980 election. The long primary process that requires so much energy and funds that it takes away from the energy that neds to be devoted to the Presidential race. Carter ended up going slightly crazy at the end of the election, as cam be speculated about Hillary Clinton right now, who is sucking down whiskey shots without chasers on national television. The primary process ending at the convention is exactly what is going to happen this year, because there will be no clear winner after the primary process this year, but rather it will be up to the delegates and the super delegates to decide who gets the nomination. This primary process was one of the first to be so long in history that involved multiple candidates to the very end, as does this years election.
On a personal level, Barak Obama is a similar candidate to Ronald Reagan, or the Teflon President. Although Barak has been associated with many bad situations, like that of his pastor, he his reputation has not been tainted by that. Ronald Reagan has a nice habit of making ethnic jokes in public and was encouraged to stay away from the microphone.
The rhetoric in this election was to pick the lesser of two evils, which this election in 2008 might come down to. It could quite possible come down to voting for who you hate less. The economic situation in both elections is similar, with inflation and unemployment rates almost exact to those of today, because of price control back then and a growing debt today because of wartime expenses. There was no incumbent in the election, as there is not today, but there is a pubic sentiment from the previous presidency that could urge people to change politically. The election ended up being very close, as this election will most likely be in more than one way. The Democratic candidate nomination will most likely be very close, deicded by a small amount of delegates and then the final Presidential election will be close because of split sentiment in the country. These elections, 1980 and 2004 are by far the most similar in history.
Monday, May 5, 2008
The link between 1984 and 2008
In 1984 the democratic convention seemed to be split between Former Vice President Walter F. Mondale, Civil Rights Activist Jesse Jackson, and Senator Gary Hart. In 2008 the Democratic candidates who garnered the most attention until recently has been Senator Hillary Clinton, Senator Barack Obama, and former Senator John Edwards. As the campaign progressed in 1984 the primaries and the media seemed to reduce the democratic contenders to two, Walter Mondale, and Senator Gary Hart. In 1984 Walter Mondale was initially seen as the favorite to win the nomination (because he had tremendous party support) but Jesse Jackson and Gary Hart proved to be serious contenders in that they both gained tremendous backing, and Mr. Hart in particular proved to be the most challenging contender, winning a number of democratic primaries and gathering a significant following with young voters. Similarities can be drawn in the 2008 democratic primary where Senator Hillary Clinton was favored to win the nomination initially but then, Senator Barack Obama (who is seen as representing the young faction of the democratic party** Like Hart) began battling Senator Clinton for the nomination. Like in 1984, I am sure the Democratic Convention of 2008 will prove to be a divisive one.
Another point of comparison can be found in the thematic nature of the presidential contest in 1984 and 2008. In 1984 the campaigned was focused on “church, home, country and morality”, in 2008 the same issues seem to apply. The democratic and republican candidates in 2008 seem to be either dodging the religion question (Senator Obama and Senator McCain) or focusing on the importance of family, country and moral issues (aside from gay rights and abortion, no one wants to touch those).
Another correlation between the 1984 and 2008 presidential campaign is the age issue. In 1984 the fact that Ronald Regan was 73 became a point of criticism for both Democrats and Republicans. When rumors spread that Regan would routinely fall asleep at cabinet meetings, or would blank out when asked foreign policy questions, his age became a critical issue. In 2008 John McCain’s age has become somewhat of an issue. At the age of 71 McCain is one of the oldest people to run for the Presidency. Similar to 1984 McCain has tried to downplay the age issue by joking about it “"I'm older than dirt, more scars than Frankenstein, but I learned a few things along the way,"(MSNBC), only time will tell if McCain’s age will really be an issue.
Perhaps the most telling comparison between the 1984 and 2008 presidential campaign is the fact that in both campaigns the country was/and is in an economic deficit. In 1984 Mondale’s plan was to raise taxes, while Regan believed it was better to cut spending on social programs. In 2008 McCain seems to have a similar belief to Regan that raises taxes isn’t the answer, but seems to be more partial to tax cuts. Senator Obama on the other hand believes in “shifting the tax burden more toward the wealthy and making investments — in health care, alternative-energy research and education — that would cost a significant amount of money but could ultimately lift economic growth” (New York Times). Similar but somewhat different from Mr. Obama Senator Clinton plans on “Mrs. Clinton’s approach to the economy has three main components. She would roll back the Bush tax cuts for households with incomes over $250,000 while creating more tax breaks below that threshold; impose closer scrutiny on financial markets, including the investments being made by foreign governments in the United States; and raise spending on job-creating projects like the development of alternative energy” (New York Times).
Overall, several comparisons can be made between the presidential campaign of 1984 and 2008, specifically the sheer number of candidates, the internal party conflicts (within the Democratic Party), the thematic nature of the contest, the age issue, and the economic deficit. Only time will tell if the 2008 presidential contest will result in a Republican victory like the 1984 campaign did. Stay tuned.
Race and Religion
80 years later race and religion still play a huge roll in the Presidental election. Much has been made about Obama's upbringing and of his now infamous preacher. If Obama does in fact win nod for the Democrats I would expect even more to be made of his religion than what has already transpired.
This link shows video of many news casts and their opinions on this issue.
http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=obama+religion&hl=en&sitesearch=
Like Smith, Obama has had to attempt to neutralize the issue at every possible turn, which for him has included being open and confident about both race and religion.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
Party Changes
After World-War II the term “conservative” began to be associated with the Republican Party, at first in the intellectual sense of a party that would hold on to traditional lifestyle and libertarian political principles. This new conservatism would be a party of limited government and free markets. There would be federalism and local control, and support for entrepreneurs and business.
During the 1950’s the “Dixi-crats” of the South, who were opposed to the civil rights movement, joined the Republican Party. The Democratic Party became the party which wanted change and social progressive policies. They wanted government involvement in addressing fairness in business, employment, housing, school, etc.
In the 1970’s the Republican Party embraced religious and tax reform movements. Between 1976 and 1988, there was a political realignment, in which evangelicals and fundamentalists moved to the Republican Party. They did more than vote for Republican candidates; they became heavily involved in political activity. The present-day Republican Party courts the religious vote, wants traditional family values to be part of public policy, and favors big business. According to the Claremont article: “Today, the Republican Party is America’s “nationalist” party, in opposition to an increasingly “provincial” Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party of today is struggling with a balance between being liberal and keeping their moderate support. The party favors progressive reforms, and more individual and states rights.
Friday, May 2, 2008
"It's the Economy Stupid..."
Also, as Americans begin to pay much more at the pumps than they ever have, the fear of inflation is also having a significant effect on the way people are looking at candidates. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Friday, 49% of those polled said that the economy was their number one issue for their vote for President. This topped the war in Iraq by a 30% margin. Only 19% of those polled said that the war in Iraq was their top issue in the 2008 Presidential race. Which economic problems are such a concern for the upcoming race for President? Of those polled, 47% said that inflation was their top choice, 19% said the housing market crisis, 13% said taxes, another 13% said unemployment, and lastly, 5 percent said the stock market.
This is especially interesting because it seems as if people are moving away from the war in Iraq as their number one issue. We know that as people more threatened they become more conservative, and as threat fades that “rally round the flag” effect tends to fade. We also know that economy issues are a Democratic specialty in a sense. It seems as if, just like in the Bush vs. Clinton election of 1992, the economy issues are going to overshadow the war in the Middle East for a second time here in the United States in 2008.
Hillary...The Movie?!
Hillary on the big screen...youve GOT the be joking! Is his a presidential race or a Hollywood showdown? Last time I checked these candidates were running for President of the United States, not in contest for an Oscar.
But yes....Hillary Clinton will be on the big screen in Hillary the Movie. The movie has just ben completed and is a documentary style movie mixed with a personal memoir. It will chronicle the ins and outs of the Clinton marriage, both Bill and Hillary's political careers, their children and their personal lives. All the dirt you wanted to know about the Clinton family will be released to the public in full technicolor dream screen. Directed by Alan Peterson, and poduced by a long line of Hollywood producers, the movie is a top notch production.
The al-star cast includes people such as Dick Morris, Ann Coulter, Newt Gingrich, Jeff Gerth, Buzz Patterson, Michael Barone, Billy Dale, Cyrus Nowrasteh, Tony Blankley, Dick Armey, Bay Buchanan, Joe Connor, Mark Levin, Frank Gaffney, Peter Paul, Gary Aldrich, Dan Burton, John Mica, Michael Medved, Kathleen Willey, Kate O’Beirne, Larry Kudlow and more! With 40 plus interviews from people that know the Clintons best, it should be quite the movie.
It was released for the first time on the big screen on January 14th in Washington DC, and locations have been spreading until the present. More dates of release are to come as the months so on. The most recent release date was April 21st, in Brooklyn, Ohio. BUT...if you can't make it to theatres, have no fear! You can order Hillary the Movie from the website for a meer $23.95 by credit card. Two weeks later you will have this masterpiece for your personal DVD collection...who knows, in 80 years it could be a classic. Or not? (If you can't wait those 2 weeks to see someHillary, there are trailers online at the movie website to give you a fix until the day that florious package comes!)
Press has been very mized about the movie, from priase saying that the new movie "exposes the Clintons" and also crituqes saying that it is "misleading trash,""down and dirty," and that "Hillary has no conscience." Watch the movie and decide for yourself...should Hillary Clinton take up acting if she loses the 2008 election or should she just stick the to Senate?
Wednesday, April 30, 2008
Religion Politics
The news lately about this election has not really been about the close race, or the fact that in less than a week a toss up state in Indiana will have their turn to vote in the race for the Democratic nomination, but rather it has been about religion. The whole controversy is over comments made by Obama's (now former and estranged) pastor, Jeremiah Wright. These comments were anti-American comments and some say that Obama did not to a well enough job in repudiating these comments. However, just yesterday, Obama basically split with Wright, saying he was shocked and appalled at his comments from earlier in the week. Overall, this may hurt Obama, but as many of times before, big issues one day are yesterday's news the next day. With this controversy with the Pastor Wright in the news today, I bet a lot of people have forgotten the whole deal with the rumor that Obama is actually a Muslim.
All of this hoop la around the religion controversy reminds me of the 1976 election with Jimmy Carter. In that campaign, Carter, who is a devout Southern Baptist from Georgia, did an interview with Playboy Magazine about religion. In it, Carter said that any man who looks and lusts for another woman, even in their own mind, is committing adultery, and that he was guilty of that sin. He then said that he was forgiven by Christ. The headlines in the news in the next few days read that "Carter Sinned" and "Carter Lusts For Other Women." This hurt his poll numbers and his standing among the public (sort of like what is happening to Obama right now), however Carter ended up winning the election of 1976 regardless.
Sources from:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/30/ED2010DQND.DTL
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/us/politics/01obama.html?ref=us
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Electoral Tit-for-Tat
We have all heard it before, the Democratic Primary has been essentially going back and forth, or as Professor Cassino put it, tit-for-tat. It all started off in Iowa, with an Obama win. Then Clinton won in New Hampshire and Nevada. Not to be outdone, Obama won in South Carolina, and then a few weeks later, both candidates essentially split the super Tuesday contests and we are now here, for the most part tied, with Obama with what some put it as an advantage that is too far for Clinton to catch up to. Lately, after Clinton's win in the Pennsylvania primary, polling has showed that the race is tied nationwide among Democrats' choice for the Democratic nomination, and has been looking that way for about the past week. This back and forth and essentially tied up race for the Democratic nomination (thus the name tit-for-tat, or back and forth) is starting to wind down, and many Democrats hope that at the end of the contests in June, the nominee will be selected.
The next contests in this back and forth race is on May 6 (That is if you exclude the Guam caucuses that occur on May 3, but only have 4 delegates at stake). The two contests that occur on that date are in North Carolina and Indiana. With an electorate that would favor Obama in North Carolina (much the way the electorate in Pennsylvania favored Clinton) and since he is most likely to win that primary barring something totally unexpected, Indiana is the next big prize up for grabs in this tit-for-tat race. Many view this state as a toss-up, giving some momentum to the winner into the final few contests of the nominating season. Polls recently have shown this race to be tied, with no clear favorite. This entire campaign, we have seen that when one of the candidates wins, the other one makes a comeback a few days or weeks later in the next contests, thus tit-for-tat (ala Clinton's victory in New Hampshire and Nevada and then Obama's victory in South Carolina).
Now if in the last contests and if the super delegates don't decide fast enough, the Democrats could go to a dead locked convention in Denver in late August. That and all of this tit-for-tat in the primary season with each candidate going back and forth in the primaries reminds me of an election from not too long ago in 1976. In the 1976 race, GOP candidates Ronald Reagan and President Gerald Ford were going tit-for-tat in the primary season. When one won a contest, the other won would also win a contest. It was a close race, and neither was able to secure enough delegates to win the GOP nomination. The race went to the convention in the summer and a fight ensued between Reagan and Ford until President Ford finally prevailed and had enough delegates for the nomination. That finally ended the tit-for-tat primary season in 1976. If one candidate in this election for the Democrats isn't decided before the convention, we could possibly see something similar in what happened to the Republicans in 1976. We shall soon see if that tit-for-tat continues, if Clinton wins big in Indiana, or if it ends and Indiana goes heavily for Obama.
Information obtained from:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/ot_20080429_6505.php
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/29/polls-clinton-obama-tied-in-indiana/
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/29/clinton-obama-dead-even-for-fifth-straight-day/
Monday, April 28, 2008
Debates styles like Lincoln; differences since 2004 in parties
-Justin O'Connor
Racial Divide
Political parties throughout history have had a difficult time holding themselves together. This is especially true since 1940 when primary elections started to become more important in choosing the next party candidate. The election of 1940 was the first election to start using public opinion polls showing how much the country was favoring one candidate over another (Boller 252-254). It seems as though now the Democrats are really experiencing that problem known as the primary election. The biggest fear now is that race could potentially divide the party, even more than it appears it already has. As New York lawyer was quoted by MSNBC as saying of Clinton, “There’s no way for her to win this election except by destroying [Obama].” It seems as though this is the growing opinion as Clinton financial supporters switch sides to support Obama. Seventy-three of Clinton’s contributors who had made the maximum allowable contribution to her campaign, in March, donated the maximum amount allowable to Obama, clearly showing their change of support or distaste in the Clinton campaign.
As seen in previous elections, once supporters start changing horses, it does not take long until the rest of a candidate’s support dries up. This used to be the reason why the Iowa caucuses were so important. A candidate’s momentum was either built up or destroyed by the results of the caucus. However, these extended primaries have messed everything up, making it an all out brawl to the finish.
One of the major concerns is that this bloody battle will leave the democratic to bloody and bruised to fight the republicans in the election. That this primary will have put such a bad taste in certain party member’s mouths that they will not be willing to change their vote over to the other candidate.
There are a number of people who have a problem with the way the other member’s of the Democratic Party who keep bringing Obama’s pastor into the picture as an anti-American figure. As Reverend Jeremiah A Write Jr. was quoted as saying, "When something is taken like a sound bite for a political purpose and put constantly over and over again, looped in the face of the public, that's not a failure to communicate. Those who are doing that are communicating exactly what they want to do, which is to paint me as some sort of fanatic or as the learned journalist from the New York Times called me, a 'wackadoodle.' “ These kinds of attacks will just further separate the party and make it harder for them to reunite against McCain in the upcoming months.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24320557/
Boller, Paul F. Jr. Presidential Campaigns. Oxford University Press Inc 1984.
Friday, April 25, 2008
What should I trust more, what I see or what I’m told?
--Three elections have been held in Vietnam--in the midst of war and under the constant threat of violence.--A President, a Vice President, a House and Senate, and village officials have been chosen by popular, contested ballot.--The enemy has been defeated in battle after battle.--The number of South Vietnamese living in areas under Government protection tonight has grown by more than a million since January of last year” (LBJ Library and Museum Website). http://www.lbjlib.utexas.edu/johnson/archives.hom/speeches.hom/680117.asp
This State of the Union was a statement to the American people that the war was going well, even though the media and television reports were telling them a drastically different story. Ultimately the unpopular images of the war outweighed Johnson’s positive portrayed and he decided to seek peaceful alternatives and not run for another presidential term. This conflict between media images and presidential messages (or in the case of John McCain presidential hopefuls) is something fairly common. In the 2008 election John McCain has been portrayed as having positive views on the War in Iraq, when the television and media reports have been mostly negative. A CBS news report states that John McCain's upbeat view of the war in Iraq isn't shared by many Americans, according to a CBS News poll. McCain's negative ratings have risen this year, and a sizeable number of Americans believe he's painted too rosy a picture of the situation in Iraq”(CBS.Com). As with the Vietnam War, those who view the Iraq War on television have a more pessimistic view of the situation “The poll listed on the CBS website also found that two-thirds of Americans continue to believe things are going badly in Iraq, about the same number as a month ago but more negative than one year ago. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/04/11/opinion/polls/main2670978.shtml. Some political analyst belive that if McCain does not alter his views on the war in Iraq, he could face the same political fate as Lyndon Johnson, only time will tell
Thursday, April 24, 2008
The impact of the 1912 Primaries
In the primary elections of 1912 Teddy Roosevelt was running against William Taft in the first primaries. Former President Roosevelt won in landslide victories in 9 out of the 12 primaries. However, when the convention met to decide on whom the candidate would be TR had the nomination pulled out from under him and given to William Taft. The online Biography of TR boldly states that due to the 1912 primaries not deciding the winner, "never again would any political party decline to nominate the clear winner of the presidential primaries." (http://www.theodoreroosevelt.org/life/bullmoose.htm)
That statement could be tested this year as the democratic primaries come to a close. Barack Obama heads towards the home stretch as the Teddy Roosevelt, with the most states won, the most votes overall, and the most pledged delegates. As the race is prolonged and dragged on by the hopes of Hillary Clinton the end could become even more like the 1912. Clinton is calling for Superdelegates, and even pledged delegates if they would be so kind, to back her despite the facts. She bases her case off of random facts such as she has won more larger states and has done better in the traditionally strong democratic voter categories.
Knowing the results of declining to follow the voice of the American people rang out loud and clear in 1912 when TR's third party the Bull Moose Party took second over William Taft and the Republican party, the Democratic National Party should tread lightly in the months to come. The Superdelegates have the ability to step in and end this pointless bickering. At any point the Superdelegates can step in and pledge their support to the clear victor of the people, but they have remained silent and allowed the party to be torn apart. What good is the past if you aren't going to learn from it?
Andrew Stoltzfus
Verified Trust.
There has existed a “Cold War” of sorts between libertarians and Republicans through the decades. At times, these icy relations have thawed in the name of political expediency. The inception of the RLC, or, The Republican Liberty Caucus, has helped to bridge some of the more common divides between the philosophy of liberty and the Republican ideology.
This is not to say that the extremely uneasy alliance hasn’t had its drawbacks and stumbles. One suspects often times that libertarians and Republicans agree on core principles more often than not. Paradoxically, one realizes members of both respective governing philosophies are more often than not very reticent to concede this reality. Republicans often declare that they do not “need” libertarians to advance their political agenda. Libertarians sometimes declare that the Republicans do not reflect their values and are poorly conceived impersonators of true libertarian ideals.
In the Republican glory days of the 1990’s and through the early part of the twenty-first century, when they firmly controlled both chambers of Congress, Republicans might have been right. Those were heady times for the Republican Party. It seemed to Americans, and analysts alike, that the American people were secure in the cradling arms of Republican governance for the foreseeable future. There was no divided government for the Republicans to be concerned about. They had the House, the Senate, and even The White House in 2000.
Dawn has broken over a very different Republican Party. The gains achieved since the 1990’s were for all intensive purposes washed away by the Democrat Tsunami of 2006. Many liberty-minded and moderate individuals abandoned the Republican Party when the party of supposed limited government and fiscal responsibility began increasing the government’s size and scope. The Republican Party oversaw the greatest expansion of government since The Great Society (Goldberg). Add to this stormy mix an immigration policy that made liberty-minded individuals uncomfortable, and many saw a political alliance shattered by irreconcilable differences.
Turning to the minor Libertarian Party, the politically homeless former GOP members were confronted by an unacceptably radical utopian platform and a mandatory pledge that disavowed the use of force for political or social gain, in any circumstance. In a political climate such as the one America finds herself in now, where approval ratings are remarkably low for both Major Parties, the 2008 presidential election cycle would seemed to have been the opportunity that Libertarians should have seized upon to raise the prominence of the nation’s third largest political party, and welcome a disheartened electorate. The dualopoly of the U.S. electoral system dooms any minor party however, and the ‘party of principle’ is no exception. Thirty-five plus years of electoral drought will almost certainly continue on for the foreseeable future.
During the early appearances of his 1952 presidential bid, General Eisenhower attempted to strike a moderate tone. According to Paul F. Boller, Jr. in Presidential Campaigns: “He took the ‘middle road’ and, although attacking centralized powers in Washington, accepted the social gains of the Roosevelt era as ‘solid floors’ on which private enterprise could build a better life for people.”
By the Fall of that same year, however, General Eisenhower, a warrior by trade, was forced to make peace with the more right-wing elements of the GOP. Eisenhower met with Senators Taft (R-Ohio), Jenner (R-Indiana) and McCarthy (R-Wisconsin). Eisenhower remained privately embarrassed by these individuals and the right wing they represented of the Party, and perceived them as unprincipled and smear artists (Boller 283). Eisenhower’s embarrassment over those he had politically aligned himself with only increased when Senator McCarthy declared General George C. Marshall “a front man for traitors” (Boller 283). Eisenhower was close friends with General Marshall for thirty-five years, and was planning to defend his friend in a speech, when he quashed the particular portion of his speech defending Marshall, at the behest of Republican leaders.
The Republican Party needs libertarians more now than ever, and perhaps libertarians need the Republican Party if they are ever to find a successful vehicle in which to advance their ideals. Republicans can no longer afford to take Independents for granted, nor dismiss libertarians and their strongly held beliefs. In his piece “Libertarians and the Republican Party: Irreconcilable Differences, attorney Glenn Greenwald, wrote:
There are no more vibrant libertarian components left of the Bush movement. Libertarians (in the small "l" sense of that word) have either abandoned the Bush-led Republicans based on the recognition -- catalyzed by the Schiavo travesty -- that there are no movements more antithetical to a restrained government than an unchecked Republican Party in its current composition. Or, like Reynolds, they have relinquished their libertarian impulses and beliefs completely as the price for being embraced as a full-fledged, unfailingly loyal member of the Bush-led Republican Party.
In his article Keeping Libertarians Inside The Tent, which appeared in The National Review, constitutional attorney Randy Barnett wrote of political compromise between Republicans and libertarians:
Stop making snide gratuitous remarks about libertarians. Nothing turns off libertarians more than the sort of wholly gratuitous snide remarks about libertarians in conservative publications. By gratuitous I mean they show up even in articles about policies with which libertarians and conservatives agree. The more libertarians feel unwelcome in the coalition that is the Republican party, the more they will vote Libertarian…
[However], The Republican coalition is, after all, a coalition and libertarians if they are inside the tent cannot be expected to call all the shots.
If both chambers of Congress are to be taken back by Republicans in the foreseeable future, they will need the full-fledged support of the libertarian movement within the Republican Party. Moreover, if the Republican Party wishes to hold the White House in the upcoming Presidential Election, the GOP can do so only by nurturing and cultivating its alliance with libertarians. Senator McCain might be just the right maverick standard bearer to accomplish this task, or he might not.
There are some common ideals that libertarians and Republicans could agree upon. However, if political compromise is to be possible, one, or both sides, cannot feel like President Eisenhower in the 1952 presidential election. That is to say, being able to compromise politically without surrendering their principles in the process. Only in this way, may it be possible for libertarians and the GOP to build a foundation from which a better, stronger and more trustful relationship is forged.
By Ryan Christiano.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
April showers bring May flowers. . .And as a summertime treat, maybe some tax relief
While the Democratic Party is busy battling it out for the nomination, Republican nominee is busy making plans on how to revive this downturned economy. How does he plan to do it? Reduce federal spending and cut taxes.
McCain plans to remove the federal tax on gasoline for the summer months, which currently sits at about 18.4 cents a gallon. It may not seem like much, but the blow that it would deal to the government’s budget would be in the billions. To help compensate for this cut in federal income, McCain would freeze expansion of federal offices and agencies. This seems rather unusual, that a Republican candidate would be against expansion of federal agencies when the party keeps promoting homeland security as one of their number one issues.
This however, is a clever trick. Promoting yourself as a Republican who will defend the security of the homeland and then at the same time pitch yourself as someone who will cut federal spending. McCain also said that he would cut back on congressionally pork-barrel spending saving an estimated 100 billion dollars.
I’m not too sure how I feel about cutting back on federal agency expansions, but cheaper gas. . .that does have a nice ring to it.
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
The Tradition of Politics
Not only are we trading negative remarks, the Election of 2008 also seems to be racking up quite a heavy spending with an estimated 20 million has the figure of expense come next Tuesday. The New York Times reports, “Mr. Obama will have spent more than $9 million on television and Mrs. Clinton will have spent almost $4 million” (Seeyle, Zeleny). There no doubt that campaigning is costly but the trail has also attracted many new and fairly young voters with “the field operations of both campaigns adding 327,000 Democrats to the voter rolls, many of them 18 to 34 years old” (Seeyle, Zeleny).
From our discussion of Susan Dunn’s historical work on the political career of Thomas Jefferson we can bear witness to similar tactics being used today that were branded by the old party machines.
Monday, April 21, 2008
Survival of the Fittest
It is this scramble to secure the nomination that have candidates bringing out their “attack dog” stance, feeding off any mishaps experienced by their opponents and using it rip them a part. Lately Pennsylvania has been the focus of the Election of 2008 due to their upcoming primaries, which has Senator Clinton and Senator Obama embroiled in a bitter battle of word confusion. On one hand you have Senator Clinton accusing Senator Obama of being elitist and on the other Senator Obama resurrects prior remarks of Senator Clinton which may imply the same charge. Senator Obama counteracts charges of him being closely identifiable with those of the upper echelon by referring to Senator Clinton’s 1992 remarks wherein she goes on record saying ‘“what do you expect, should I be at home baking cookies”’ ( Nagourney, Zeleny)? The game continues until the primaries helps us to decide who will seal the nomination, until then we should sit back and enjoy the stone faces, smirks and teeth clenching that will be found on many televised debates.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/us/politics/17debate.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/17/us/politics/17watch.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/16/us/politics/16text-debate.html