Thursday, February 21, 2008

Potential vs. Experience

Potential versus experience, is always an interesting dynamic when awarding anyone any kind of pivotal position. In sports, you often see teams take a chance on a young rookie at the expense of a veteran player, hoping the potential of the rookie is better than the talent of the veteran. In the 2008 election 46 year old Senator Barack Obama represents that rookie potential, while Hilary Clinton represents the veteran experience for the Democratic nomination. Even if you know nothing about politics, you still likely know who Hillary Clinton is, and that she is the wife of former president Bill Clinton. However, chances are if you’re not into politics you had no clue who Barack Obama was until recently. The big name that Hillary carries seemed to be enough for victory early in the race for the Democratic nomination, however Obama has stormed ahead riding a wave of momentum. It is unclear who will come out on top, just as it was in 1860 when another young Illinois Senator was running for a nomination.
There is no doubt that this years election is unlike any other in many regards, the same can be said for the election of 1860, which to this day may have been the most important in our history. Like Obama, Abraham Lincoln was a young politician of Illinois running for his party nomination against a much more well known opponent. Interestingly enough he, like Obama, was running against a New York politician in William H. Seward. Seward, according to Paul F. Boller Jr, had, “long been prominent in national affairs, and was far better known than Lincoln, but he had made many political enemies.” (Presidential Campaigns 102) The enemies of Seward, and the lack of enemies against Lincoln would eventually lead him to victory on the third ballot, which represents the closeness in the nomination. The issues of the time were obviously centered around slavery, and because both Lincoln and Seward agreed on the issue, the nomination was to be based on charisma and the notion of potential versus experience.
This lack of experience has also played a major role in the Democratic primaries of the 2008 election. There have been many attacks on Obama in regards to this issue from a number of sources including Bill Clinton. http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120355718638881711-Lsw6ssRGQazgy3CoFlwP4L0A3mo_20080321.html?mod=tff_main_tff_top if you would prefer to watch click the following link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FUm7tkgFGYs. As you can see in the video or read in the Times article, the argument here has nothing to do with the issues. This is in large part due to the fact that the two candidates are separated very little on the issues just as in 1860. http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/issues/
Though it is impossible to predict, I’m going to throw one out there, I predict that potential will again win out yet again, and not only will Obama win the nod for the Democrats, but I would also not be surprised in the least if he was the next President of the United States of America.


1 comment:

DKennedy said...

The Fox News Channel has Frank Luntz and focus groups for each debate. The partisan group watches the debate and then discusses it with Luntz afterwards. This is a good way to see the reaction that people have immediately after watching the candidates.

In the recent Texas debate Luntz questioned the group on what was most important: electability, experience, or change. Only one person thought that electability was the most important. The rest of the group was split evenly between experience and change. This may be the reason why Clinton and Obama are neck and neck.

Personally, it suprises me that more people are not concerned with the electability factor. So much of the country is disatisfied with current issues and policy, and without being elected, how can change or experience get into the White House?